Executive Summary
- •This is pre-seed investing: buying cards of former #1 recruits before they have any college production
- •The Big Three — Bryce Underwood (Michigan), Tavien St. Clair (Ohio State), Keelon Russell (Alabama) — all inherit blue-blood programs after the 2026 exodus
- •Ohio State's QB pipeline has produced three first-round picks in six years — St. Clair is next in line at $2–$10 per card
- •The January 2027 draft declaration window is the single most important catalyst — build positions before that date
- •Two-year hold thesis: NIL cards at $2–$40 today could become $200–$2,000+ NFL rookie card precursors
In the last issue, we mapped the 2026 Heisman race and identified Julian Sayin, Dante Moore, and Jeremiah Smith as the best risk-adjusted card positions for the upcoming season. Those were Series A bets — known quantities with quantifiable edges. This issue is different. This is pre-seed.
Why Look Two Years Out?
We're identifying players who are former #1 overall national recruits, Elite 11 finalists, and Gatorade National Players of the Year — five-star prospects who have been developing behind veteran starters at the three most prestigious programs in college football — and will likely be Heisman frontrunners and top-5 NFL Draft picks within 24 months.
The logic is simple: in a market where a Heisman winner's flagship rookie card can 50-100× in a single season, the most asymmetric returns come from buying before the player has any college production. By the time Bryce Underwood or Tavien St. Clair are leading their teams to the College Football Playoff in 2027, the market will have already priced it in. The window is now.
The Setup
After the 2026 season, most current Heisman contenders will declare for the 2027 NFL Draft: Arch Manning, Dante Moore, Jeremiah Smith, Julian Sayin (if big year), likely CJ Carr. The 2027 Heisman field will be wiped clean. Three five-star QBs — all former consensus top-5 national recruits — step into the vacuum at Michigan, Ohio State, and Alabama. Their trajectories are about to accelerate.
The Departures — Who Leaves After 2026
| Player | School | Draft Projection | Departure Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremiah Smith | Ohio State | #1 Overall | 99% — Generational WR |
| Dante Moore | Oregon | Top 3 | 95% — Already turned down top-5 money |
| Arch Manning | Texas | Top 5-10 | 90% — Junior year, Manning timeline |
| Julian Sayin | Ohio State | Top 5-15 | 85% — If Heisman-caliber year |
| CJ Carr | Notre Dame | Late 1st–2nd | 75% — Could return if underwhelming |
| Marcel Reed | Texas A&M | 1st-2nd Round | 70% — Needs clean 2026 |
| Brendan Sorsby | Texas Tech | 1st Round | 85% — Already had draft buzz |
This mass departure creates the most wide-open Heisman field since 2025 — which, not coincidentally, produced Mendoza's out-of-nowhere championship run. History repeats when the field clears.
The Big Three — 2027 Heisman Frontrunners
Three players will enter the 2027 season as the most likely Heisman candidates. All three share the same profile: former consensus top-5 national recruit, developed behind a veteran starter, inheriting a blue-blood program with elite supporting casts. The comp for all three is Bryce Young — five-star, sat behind a veteran, won the Heisman in his first full year as starter.
Bryce Underwood
QB · Michigan · Will be RS Sophomore in 2027 · #1 Overall Recruit (2025 Class)
Tavien St. Clair
QB · Ohio State · Will be RS Sophomore in 2027 · #4 Overall Recruit (2025 Class)
Keelon Russell
QB · Alabama · Will be RS Sophomore in 2027 · #2 Overall Recruit (2025 Class)
The Ohio State Pipeline — Why It Matters for Cards
No program in college football has produced more consistently valuable NFL QB draft picks in the modern era. The pattern compounds because each QB generation throws to elite receivers: Olave/Wilson → Jaxon Smith-Njigba → Marvin Harrison Jr. → Jeremiah Smith → Chris Henry Jr. (2026 five-star signee). The supporting cast reloads every year.
Dwayne Haskins
4,831 yds, 50 TD. #15 overall pick. Heisman finalist. One-year starter.
Justin Fields
Transfer from Georgia. #11 overall pick. Heisman finalist.
C.J. Stroud
8,123 career yds, 85 TD. #2 overall pick. Two-time Heisman finalist.
Will Howard
Transfer from Kansas State. Mid-round pick. Solid floor.
Julian Sayin
3,610 yds, 32 TD, 77% comp. Heisman finalist. Likely declares.
Tavien St. Clair
Five-star from Bellefontaine, Ohio. The next cycle begins →
| Year | Player | Draft Position | Stats | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Dwayne Haskins | #15 Overall | 4,831 yds, 50 TD | Heisman finalist. One year as starter. |
| 2021 | Justin Fields | #11 Overall | — | Transfer from Georgia. Heisman finalist. Two years as starter. |
| 2023 | C.J. Stroud | #2 Overall | 8,123 career yds, 85 TD | Two-time Heisman finalist. Two years as starter. |
| 2025 | Will Howard | Mid-Round Pick | — | Transfer from Kansas State. One year. Solid floor. |
| 2026 | Julian Sayin | Projected Top 5-15 | 3,610 yds, 32 TD, 77% comp | Heisman finalist. Returning for another year. |
| 2027? | Tavien St. Clair | Projected QB2 (2028) | — | Five-star. The next cycle begins. |
Tier 2 — The Wild Cards
Beyond the Big Three, several scenarios could produce surprise Heisman contenders in 2027:
CJ Carr (if he returns)
QB · Notre Dame · Would be Junior in 2027
Faizon Brandon
QB · Tennessee · Will be RS Freshman in 2027 · #1 QB in 2026 Class (247Sports)
Dia Bell
QB · Texas · Will be RS Freshman in 2027 · Five-star · Manning's Successor
Jared Curtis
QB · Vanderbilt · Will be RS Freshman in 2027 · Five-star · Flipped from Georgia
2028 NFL Draft — QB Class Projection
The 2028 NFL Draft QB class is shaping up to be one of the deepest in recent memory. All three of the Big Three are projected in the top-3 QB slots, and early scouting boards are already forming.
| Draft Rank | Player | School | Key Selling Point | Risk Factor |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB1 | Bryce Underwood | Michigan | Most starts, dual-threat, prototype size | Michigan's program stability |
| QB2 | Tavien St. Clair | Ohio State | OSU pipeline, elite arm, best supporting cast | One-year starter discount |
| QB3 | Keelon Russell | Alabama | Penix comp, accuracy, Alabama brand | Slight frame, Bama trajectory |
| QB4 | Jaden Rashada | Georgia | Former five-star, athletic upside | Transferred multiple times |
| QB5 | CJ Carr* | Notre Dame | Three-year starter (if returns) | Probably declares 2027 |
The Comp Framework — Historical Parallels
| 2027 Candidate | Historical Comp | Why It Fits | Outcome of Comp |
|---|---|---|---|
| Underwood | Caleb Williams (2022) | Raw freshman → polished sophomore. Dual-threat at blue blood. | Won Heisman. #1 pick. |
| St. Clair | C.J. Stroud (2021) | Five-star who sat behind veteran. Inherited loaded OSU roster. | Heisman finalist. #2 pick. |
| Russell | Bryce Young | Five-star at Alabama. Sat behind veteran. Gatorade NPOY. | Won Heisman. #1 pick. |
| Brandon | Hendon Hooker | Athletic QB in Heupel's up-tempo Tennessee system. | Heisman finalist. |
| Bell | Arch Manning | Five-star inheriting Sarkisian's Texas offense. | TBD — strong early returns. |
| Curtis | Jayden Daniels | Dual-threat QB in stat-inflating offensive system. | Won Heisman. #2 pick. |
Portfolio Construction
The 2027 portfolio is structured differently than 2026 because we're buying earlier in the cycle. Position sizes should be smaller, hold periods longer, and expectations calibrated for a two-year payoff window.
2027 Portfolio Allocation
Entry Strategy by Player
| Player | What to Buy | Price | First Catalyst | Second Catalyst | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underwood | Any 2025 NIL auto / Panini college card | $10–$40 | Michigan 2026 season | 2027 Heisman run | 20–80× |
| St. Clair | Any NIL card available (very few exist) | $2–$10 | Sayin declares (Jan 2027) | Named OSU starter (Spring '27) | 50–200× |
| Russell | NIL base cards / any Alabama product | $3–$15 | Wins 2026 starting job | Strong 2026 season | 30–100× |
| Brandon | Will have first cards Fall 2026 | N/A yet | Named Tennessee starter | Early 2026 flash | 50–200× |
| Bell | Will have first cards Fall 2026 | N/A yet | Manning declares | Named starter 2027 | 30–150× |
| Curtis | Will have first cards Fall 2026 | N/A yet | Any Vandy success moment | National attention | 100–500× |
Scenarios and Probabilities
Unlike the 2026 portfolio, where we can assign odds with reasonable confidence, the 2027 thesis depends on conditional events. Here's the decision tree:
Scenario A: The Chalk — 45% Probability
Sayin, Moore, Manning, Smith all declare after big 2026 seasons. St. Clair starts at OSU, Russell starts at Bama, Underwood returns as experienced Michigan QB. The Big Three dominate the 2027 Heisman race. Card values: Core positions 20–50× from today's prices.
Scenario B: The Surprise Return — 20% Probability
One or more of Sayin/Manning/Carr returns for 2027, absorbing Heisman probability from the Big Three. This compresses the upside for St. Clair (if Sayin stays) or Russell (if a veteran QB transfers to Alabama). Card values: Core positions still 10–20× but ceiling is lower.
Scenario C: The Dark Horse — 25% Probability
A player nobody is discussing right now — a transfer QB, a 2026 freshman who breaks out immediately — captures the Heisman narrative. This is the Mendoza scenario. Card values: Venture positions potentially 100–500×, core positions still appreciate but less dramatically.
Scenario D: The Injury / Bust — 10% Probability
One or more of the Big Three underperforms or gets injured, creating a true wide-open race. This is the worst case for concentrated portfolios but fine for diversified ones. Card values: Mixed. This is why position sizing matters.
In all four scenarios, diversification across the Big Three protects capital. The only unrecoverable outcome is concentrated exposure to a single player who busts — which is why we size the Big Three equally and keep venture bets small.
The Catalyst Calendar
The 2027 thesis plays out over 24 months. Here are the dates that matter:
| Date | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Mar–Apr 2026 | Spring practices begin | Russell vs. Mack QB battle at Alabama. First real signals. |
| Aug 2026 | Starting QBs announced | Russell, Underwood confirmed starters → first card price pop. |
| Sept–Dec 2026 | Season plays out | Underwood Year 2 tape. Russell Year 1 tape. St. Clair still waiting. |
| Dec 2026 | Heisman ceremony | 2026 winner announced. Shapes who leaves. |
| Jan 2027 | NFL Draft declarations | THE pivotal moment. If Sayin declares → St. Clair's value skyrockets. |
| Mar–Apr 2027 | Spring practices | St. Clair named OSU starter. First NIL card premium spikes. |
| Aug 2027 | Preseason polls / odds | 2027 Heisman odds publish. Big Three likely top-5 favorites. |
| Sept 2027 | Season kicks off | Cards begin moving on game-by-game results. Alpha window closes. |
| Dec 2027 | Heisman ceremony | One of the Big Three likely wins. Card values crystallize. |
| Apr 2028 | NFL Draft | Rookie card transition. Bowman/Prizm rookie autos unlock big-money market. |
The Bottom Line
Two-year sports card investing is a game of structural pattern recognition. The patterns here are as clear as they've ever been:
- Ohio State produces first-round QBs like clockwork. Haskins, Fields, Stroud, and likely Sayin. St. Clair is next in line. The pipeline is the edge.
- Five-star QBs who sit behind veterans and then start at blue bloods have the highest hit rate in college football. Bryce Young sat, then won the Heisman. Stroud sat, then went #2 overall. Underwood, St. Clair, and Russell all fit this pattern.
- Card prices at the pre-production stage are essentially zero. St. Clair cards at $2–$10. Russell cards at $3–$15. Underwood cards at $10–$40. These are pre-seed entry points for players whose NFL rookie cards will be $200–$2,000+ if they hit their projections.
- The catalyst calendar is defined. January 2027 (draft declarations) is the single most important date. Build positions before that date. Everything after is reactive.
Highest conviction: Tavien St. Clair — best pipeline, best supporting cast potential, cheapest entry price.
Safest bet: Bryce Underwood — most experience, known quantity by 2027, consensus QB1.
Best brand: Keelon Russell — Alabama pipeline, Bryce Young comp, Grubb system.
Best venture: Jared Curtis — five-star at Vandy in Kiffin's system. The definition of asymmetric.
Position size accordingly. Hold for 24 months. Let the pipeline do the work.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Sports card values are volatile and speculative. All projections are based on publicly available data as of February 2026 and involve significant uncertainty over a two-year horizon. Past performance of player pipelines, draft outcomes, and card appreciation does not guarantee future results. The author may hold positions in cards discussed. Do your own research.